The Hurricane Prediction Problem
Before the days of satellites and high-tech radars, coastal
residents relied on nautical crews to discover hurricanes brewing
in the oceans and relay the message to shore-a process affording
little time for evacuations. Over the last several decades,
forecasters have developed complex methods to predict where
a hurricane will make landfall several days in advance. However,
to adequately prepare for an impending hurricane, forecasters
must determine not only where the storm is going but also how
strong and how wide it might become and how fast it is moving.
The NEXRAD in Space program will measure critical properties
of hurricanes that will improve our understanding of and ability
to predict the intensity and structure of these dangerous,
destructive storms.
NEXRAD in Space (NIS) combines the skill of Doppler radar with the coverage of a geostationary satellite to provide unprecedented insight into the internal structure of individual hurricanes. Numerical prediction models will use these observations to better predict changes in the storm's intensity and structure. This technology has the potential to change the basic assumptions that drive hurricane forecasts.
Rotating with the Earth to look at the same spot continuously, a geostationary satellite meets the overall requirements necessary, such as sampling frequency and spatial resolution, to exploit capabilities of NEXRAD. On the ground, the NEXRAD network is difficult to uniformly calibrate. Using a single, space-based instrument eliminates that problem. Looking down from space also offers a different, more useful perspective of the storm.
After the economically and personally disastrous 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, the need for better forecasts and more precise public warnings is increasingly apparent. NIS will provide much needed observations that will allow scientists to revolutionize hurricane forecasting.